Geek Precis: Apple Tablet/Slate Predictions, Prognostications, and Dreams

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Introduction
It seems clear that Apple will introduce a tablet or slate device at its recently announced event on January 27. Since the cat may soon be officially out of the bag, it is a good time to make predictions and see how well we do.

As with any major Apple product announcement, rumors and information of questionable accuracy have been flying around for months. Some little bit of it is actual leaked data, much of this is educated extrapolation, and quite a bit wishful thinking or outright BS.

So, here's my pass at putting together a set of predictions in advance of the actual announcement.

Publications and Multimedia
Combining the older rumors of the NY Times and the more recent rumors regarding Harper Collins, it seems clear Apple plans to bring electronic books and publications to the iTunes "mall". They will likely use the same 70/30 split they use for the App Store, and it seems Amazon is worried enough to announce they would use the same pricing scheme.

Amazon has been having some success with e-books, and there has been increased interest in electronic newspapers and comic books. One problem with the existing framework for e-books is that it has been based on the ancient structure for physical books where traditionally the closer you are to the creative process, the less money you make. The author normally needs a corporate publisher makes very little, and the publisher guarantees the sale of the physical books by accepting returns for an extended period of time. The retailer is in a fairly nice position (relatively speaking). In addition, current e-books are mostly simple text with little or no multimedia features.

I simply cannot imagine Apple introducing a device for e-books that does not support audio, video and other multimedia formats. I think Apple's new iTunes LP and iTunes Extras are the precursors of a web-technology-based standard format for interactive multimedia content.

If Apple adopts a 70/30 split and accepts content from authors directly, it would be a dramatic improvement for self-publishing allowing authors to go directly to their audience and still have a good chance of reaching a large audience. In the area of music, Apple has focused on the large labels, but the App Store accepts submissions from anyone.

I believe Apple will go with this 70/30 model for publications as diverse as books, text books, newspapers, magazines, graphic novels, and comic books all including multimedia features based on open HTML 5 type technologies. I hope they open the door to anyone rather than restricting things to major corporate publishers.

Image via Wikipedia

Games
While I do not think Apple intended the iPhone and iPod Touch to become a primary gaming platform, they have become a gaming juggernaut. And Apple knows a good thing when they see it. Any future devices will begin with a well considered gaming strategy and the upcoming tablet is no exception.

I believe everything points towards Apple supporting and encouraging high quality gaming on the new large screen tablet. The larger screen and significantly better performing hardware will enable a whole different class of games. With the gaming press invited to the event, this seems to be a lock.

Productivity and Applications
While there is much less fact and only a little rumor to go on, I hope the new tablet device supports more productivity/creativity applications in a manner similar to a regular Mac or PC. I would love to see iLife, iWork, and some of Apple's "Pro" apps such as Aperture.

To go a bit further out on a limb, I further projects my hopes in the area of file organization. Apple has organized our Music in a database in iTunes, our photos in the iPhoto or Aperture databases, and they've begun to do the same for our personal videos with iMovie. By extending this model to traditional productivity files (e.g. PDF's, text, and spreadsheets), Apple could create a useful way to organize virtually all our files and multimedia assets while simplifying the learning curve for novice users and allowing some nice functionality (i.e. "Smart Folders") for more advanced users. This would allow the new line of devices to replace a laptop our desktop for 90% of most peoples' activities.

Music
Apple largely has music conquered, so I don't expect anything dramatic in this area. I believe Apple will continue to refine things and emphasize multimedia features like iTunes LP. I personally hope for a full Cocoa rewrite of iTunes.

Business Model and 30/70
Since the great success of the App Store's 70/30 revenue split, Apple will be looking for new areas to apply this business model. While Microsoft has been working hard for decades to somehow insert itself into as many transactions as possible, Apple appears to have found a practical way to do it. Songs, television, movies, apps, books, newspapers, magazines, and comic books. Apple could be well on their way to extracting a 30% cut from virtually all the media consumers purchase.

This would be very powerful for Apple's bottom line, but it could present problems going forward. As much as I like Apple, it might be the best idea to depend on one company for so much. But no other companies seem to be both capable and interested in doing these things.

I think what started as an effort by Apple to protect itself from a media monopoly dominated my Microsoft's proprietary formats may lead to an effective monopoly by Apple. Fortunately, this type of development will take some time, and Apple has tended to focus on standards-based file formats making completely lock-in a smaller risk than where we seemed to be headed with Microsoft's Windows Media before iTunes hit the scene.

Logistics
It is rumored that Apple's new tablet may be launched for the US only initially and might cost as much as $999 (or maybe even more). And although I hope neither of these is true, I must admit they seem likely.

One thing I have not seen much discussion about is how Apple maximizes revenue and expectations on new product launches. Rather than try to introduce a new product across the entire globe priced at its permanent price, Apple tends to introduce and price product in controlled phases. By reducing the area of introduction, they make it easier to handle the logistics of manufacture, warehousing, and delivery. And price controlling the supply tightly, they can increase demand thereby supporting a higher unit price initially, when early adopters will buy anyway being relatively insensitive to price. After the early problems (if any) have been solved, logistics are in place for greater volume, and the early adopting audience has been satisfied (at high prices), Apple's can lower the retail price and drive volume. Most obviously, they did this by initially keeping the iPod Mac only for a few years, introducing the iPhone in the US only on a single carrier at first.

Combined with the difficulty in secure rights to various media in different countries, it seems logical to expect the tablet will have an initially restricted roll out with a high price point. After gauging market reaction and adjusting, Apple will introduce the new product in more markets and begin to decrease pricing as scale allows to increase volume and market share/penetration.

So, expect a US launch at a high price. (Edit: I'm setting my estimate at $849 with no subsidy but maybe less if they do a cell deal.)

Expectations
There are so many rumors and hopes surrounding this product that has not been announced and might never exist, there exists the real specter of failing to meet artificially high expectations. Apple's recent track record adds to the expectation of not just a successful product but a revolution. Anything short of that may be seen as a failure.

On the other hand, Apple has all the pieces in place to create a 5th major product revelation (after the personal computer {Apple ][} , the GUI {Mac}, personal music device and the music delivery industry (iPod), and the smart phone and applications {iPhone and App Store}). I'm not sure how many more revolutions Steve Jobs has left in him, and he probably feels the same way. Because of this, I feel confident he will not release anything less than a spectacular game changer.

Prognostications
I expect a roughly 10 inch LCD tablet running a PA Semi dual-core ARM Cortex 9 chip with the latest Imagination Technologies PowerVR graphics. I expect 512-1024 MB of RAM with flash storage of 16-64 GB. I agree with reports that the main system-on-a-chip will put Apple out in the lead in terms of power and efficiency, and we might see a significant breakthrough there.

Software-wise, we'll get version 4 of the mobile OS X supporting this new tablet and the more recent iPhones and iPod Touches. I hope to see some improvements in on-screen notifications and in multitasking. I think we will see a major evolution (but not revolution) in the touch-based user interface, and the new device will be focused on finding, purchasing, and accessing media of all types. I hope to see some sort of cloud-based storage and synchronization, because it is past time that Mobile Me matured into a more useful service.

I don't care too much about the specific name, but I would guess it would be one of these (in descending order): Canvas, iBook, Slate, iPad, Tablet, or GeniusPad. I also would not be surprised to see "Touch" worked into the name to help differentiate the new mobile line of touch-based device from Apple along with the iPhone and iPod Touch.

I still have high expectations and look forward to seeing them exceeded.

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Geek Precis

2010-01-22

Apple Tablet/Slate Predictions, Prognostications, and Dreams

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